Minus 13. That is where GfK’s consumer confidence barometer landed in September, up one point on August and the highest reading since August 2024. It also means British households are still more pessimistic than optimistic.
The mechanics here matter. A third monthly rise in a row sounds like a recovery, and GfK says it is the first time since summer 2024 the overall score has managed three consecutive increases. But the index has crept up gradually since April, and it remains deep below zero. The September result also came as a surprise.
Where the gain came from
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said the largest gains came from views of the wider economy over the past year, up four points, and of personal finances over the same period, up three. The forward-looking economic and financial measures each added one point.
Then the catch. The Major Purchase Index was the only measure to fall, down one point, just as retailers head into their important Golden Quarter. Consumers were less willing to commit to big spending, and their savings intentions grew. The Savings Index, which is not part of the headline score, jumped five points. Bellamy read that as a sign that those who can are thinking of building a financial buffer.
Prices push back
Energy bills are part of the worry. Household costs could rise again when the price cap resets in January. Bellamy said the return of higher inflation removes one of the strongest positives of previous months.
“So, while the headline score continues to improve, confidence is still firmly in negative territory,” he said. “With inflation, energy and fuel prices rising, could we soon see consumer sentiment falter?”
The savings jump and the weaker appetite for big purchases suggest households are already hedging against exactly that.
Sources
- UK Consumer Confidence Reaches Two-Year High in September, GfK Reports
- Consumer confidence hits two-year high – Credit Connect
